The Pentagon burned through $5.6 billion worth of munitions in the first 2 days of the war. That number was shared with Congress on Monday. The Washington Post reported that the administration is expected to send a supplemental defense budget request this week potentially totaling tens of billions of dollars. The military has struck more than 3,000 targets using more than 2,000 munitions. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine warned Trump before the operation that an extended conflict could deplete precision weapons stocks already sapped by years of support for Ukraine and military action in at least 7 other countries. Three F 15s lost to friendly fire cost approximately $100 million each. The Pentagon is now moving parts of a THAAD system from South Korea to the Middle East. Patriot interceptors are being drawn from the Indo Pacific and other regions. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the more THAADs and Patriots you shoot, the more risk you assume in the Indo Pacific and in Ukraine. Think about what that means. To fund this war the government is physically stripping missile defense systems from the region where China is the primary threat and shipping them to a war that the intelligence community's own classified assessment said would not achieve its objectives. Every interceptor fired in the Gulf is an interceptor that no longer exists between China and Taiwan. Every dollar spent on this war is a dollar that does not exist for infrastructure, debt reduction, or the defense of the homeland. The cost is not abstract. It is measured in weapons that cannot be replaced fast enough, in positions left undefended, and in a supplemental budget request that will be funded by the same money printing that is destroying the currency.

This is now the largest oil supply disruption in history. Rapidan Energy Group told clients that roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply has been disrupted for 9 days, more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956. Oil hit $116 per barrel Sunday night before authorities pushed it back below $90 through a combination of G7 statements about potential emergency reserve releases and Trump telling CBS News the war is very complete. It is not very complete. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran struck Bahrain's Al Ma'ameer oil complex Monday, causing a fire at one of the country's largest petroleum facilities. Bapco declared force majeure, joining Qatar and Kuwait in activating legal clauses warning that events beyond their control may cause them to miss export targets. Saudi Arabia shot down 2 waves of drones targeting the Shaybah oil field. The average gallon of gasoline in California hit $5.20. One Los Angeles station is charging over $8. The nations with spare oil capacity that could bridge the gap, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are the same nations being cut off from the global market by the Strait closure. Rapidan said there is no swing producer positioned to step in. There is no meaningful cushion. China warned Monday it will take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security. Former IEA executive Neil Atkinson told CNBC the sky is the limit for oil prices because there is no precedent for this level of disruption. Meanwhile Trump told the same interview he is thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz, a statement that implies boots on the ground to secure a waterway his own war made impassable.

Gold closed the week at $5,158. Silver at $88. A comprehensive analysis published this week traced the entire 50 year arc of precious metals from the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971 through every major monetary crisis since. The conclusion was direct. Gold and silver do not predict the future. They reflect the present more honestly than most policy statements. When they rise together and silver accelerates, history says markets are pricing uncertainty rather than optimism. The conditions required to permanently reverse the relevance of precious metals, restored policy credibility, fiscal restraint, rebuilt institutional trust, are notably absent. Central banks have been net buyers every year since 2010. In 2022 they purchased 1,082 tonnes. In 2023 they bought 1,037 tonnes. This is not speculative flow. This is institutional acknowledgment that the system carries risks paper reserves cannot hedge. The analysis noted that the UK sold half its gold reserves between 1999 and 2002 at roughly $275 per ounce, a decision that cost taxpayers tens of billions of pounds when gold subsequently surged. That sale reflected peak confidence in the fiat system. The same peak confidence that preceded 2008. The same peak confidence that preceded the money printing of 2020. And the same confidence that preceded a war launched without a plan for what comes after, funded by a currency that has lost purchasing power in every decade since the gold window closed.

"I want to talk about something different today. I want to talk about the bill. Not the defense supplemental that Congress will rubber stamp this week. The real bill. The one that lands on kitchen tables. A father in Los Angeles paying over $8 for a gallon of gasoline this week. A mother in Bahrain shielded her 2 month old baby from shrapnel after an Iranian drone hit the island of Sitra. A 26 year old teacher in Tehran told AFP that when you hear the bombs you have no idea where they will hit. Seven American families received flags this week at Dover Air Force Base. The Pentagon stripped missile defense systems from South Korea to ship to a war zone that its own intelligence agencies said cannot be won from the air. I have spent weeks connecting gold prices, carrier movements, and currency debasement because those are the signals that preppers track. But today I want to be clear about what those signals represent in human terms. Every war in history was sold as necessary. Every war in history was funded by the people who had no say in starting it. The $5.6 billion in munitions burned in 48 hours came from taxpayers who were not consulted. The $8 gasoline came from a supply chain that civilians built and governments destroyed. The empty THAAD battery in South Korea is a risk absorbed by people who will not be told it was moved until after something goes wrong. This is not about left or right. This is not about parties or presidents. This is about the oldest pattern in human civilization. Governments wage wars. Citizens pay for them. Currencies absorb the damage. And the people who prepared before the first shot was fired are the only ones who gave themselves a choice in the matter. That choice is what prepping has always been about. Not prediction. Not fear. Choice. The choice to not be dependent on systems run by people who will spend $5.6 billion in 48 hours and then ask Congress for more. Prepare accordingly."

Alex Simm
Head Editor
WeLovePrepping